The Brazilian articles have moved to a new section which you can find here: Brazil economy updates .
Meanwhile in South Africa things are deteriorating.
This weekend The Times reported on recent water tests in Durban where more than half of the tests did not meet health standards .
“It shows this water is not protected and organisms are growing at a hell of a rate.”
Meanwhile a business man offered Zuma 1 billion Rand to buy satellite equipment, computers and helicopters for regular patrols - they would be available to police all over this country. The business man sees crime as the biggest threat to South Africa and right he is. But a "donation"? There's nothing like "Cash in the table"..or should I say, "There's never a thing called Free Lunch". What's the catch? Surely a man cannot just wake up and think about donating R1 billion to the state...the devil is in the details.
Readers wonder who'll be able to operate this tech material, the army already doesn't have people to operate or maintain new boats, U-boats and planes.
Also, let's not forget that last February Zuma and the ANC abolished the Scorpions , South Africa's elite corps who was investigating the ANC .
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May 31 2009
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May 16 2009
I'm sceptical on South Africa's short and mid-term future, that's no secret. The whole African continent is facing an enormous economical backlash . There will be a public deficit of 5,4% in 2009 compared to a surplus of 2,8% in 2009. The commercial balance is dropping from a surplus of 2,7% in 2008 to a deficit of 4,3% in 2009. Already today the South African public health system, on which 90% of the South Africans depend is falling apart .
But the real big issue of South Africa will be the influx of immigrants .
South Africa is unlike Brazil not a multicultural country. Different ethinic groups live next to each other and not with each other. When I address a black chief of staff of South African Airlines in Joburg and I stand on my rights without insulting the woman, she immediately threatens me not to be racist. The effect of "reverse racism" is absolutely stunning these days in the country.
And now there's an absolute blockbuster movie which will appear later this year which is taking place in South Africa and uses a metaphor to dig up the whole issue of racial seggregation, apartheid and intolerance in South Africa: District 9 .
Neil Blomkamp is the director. He is a South AFrican born, Vancouver based director. I got know him in 2005 through these shortmovies: " Alive in Johannesburg ".
For District 9 (which will be released on August 14th in South Africa and North America, later this year in Europe), Neil Blomkamp teamed up with Peter Jackson through and Jackson's production company, WingNut Films. Sony Pictures Entertainment picked up the North American distribution rights for District 9 which will mark Blomkamp's feature film directorial debut. Peter Jackson is the producer of the Lord of the Rings, Crossing the Line,... so expect District 9 to become a blockbuster.
The setting is South Africa and the metaphor both producers use in District 9 is as suble as a brick to the head: "Look: South Africa ! Apartheid ! Racial Segregation and intelorance !"
Below two trailers: the first one is the edited one for Apple Trailers, the second one is the unedited one with the translation of the answers of the aliens (messsage: just like the Zimbabwen immigrants, the Aliens they have no bad intentions). -
Apr 19 2009
Earlier in april the Wall Street Journal published an interactive graph summarising the eocnmical status of the G20 countries.
One of their graphs depicted the estimated government public debt as percentage of GDP . -
Apr 18 2009
Another great source of information on Brazil'seconomy is the Blog of Vitoria Saddi .
Until recently she was senior Latin American economist at RGE monitor ; wise choose to mark your own pathy away from Roubini aka Vulva of Doom .
Keep up the good work, we're all reading you. -
Apr 18 2009
Since Emerging South and it's Linkedin Group started in 2007, we've seen serious traction in high-quality coverage of Emerging Markets. Traditional European media have missed the boat of providing in-depth economical analysis of Emerging Markets.
One of those not-to-miss sources is MyStockVoice of Paul Harper, who is also on Twitter . Juts check his last posting on Chinese officials getting nervous about the state of the US economy and his coverage on Brazil . -
Apr 13 2009
Quote from Toronto Star this weekend :
"While China and India will remain the largest (emerging-economy markets), Airbus forecasts that some 30 additional emerging economies, including Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Vietnam, with a combined population of almost three billion people, will grow increasingly prominent by 2026." -
Apr 9 2009
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Mar 29 2009
As promised last week: an update from the real estate market in Rio de Janeiro.
Until september Brazil was completely outside the current market crisis. It took even until Oktober to see a very slight impact on the real estate prices. In the center, the prices had a small 10% dip in price in October. In Ipanema the prices dropped 3,9% in November. From November on prices rose again. Actually, from September until end February prices rose 30,8% in Rio de Janeiro center and 16% in Ipanema. Consider than that inflation is around 5% y/y (2,5% 6 months) and you have your net appreciation.
A 2 bedroom apartment (in Rio a 2 bedroom apartment is max 85m2, you need a 3 bedroom apartment to get to 95-115 m2) comes at an average price of (dived by 3 to get the prices in Euros):
Ipanema: 750.000 R$
Leblon: 860.000 R$
Lagoa: 885.000 R$ (Lagoa topped Leblon and Ipanema, different from 2004)
Jardim Botanico: 740.000 R$
The cheaper areas in zona sul are Botafo and Laranjeiras. Amazingly the average prices in Laranjeiras also rose to 560.000 R$.
I could dedicate an entire blog on the real estate market of Rio de Janeiro, one of the most interesting (and most complex) ones in the world.
Drop me a line for more insights. -
Mar 29 2009
When I came living in Brazil in 2003 the first big potential I notice was the country's ability to be self-sustaining.
Brazil has plenty of food (it's the second biggest food exporting country in the world), is self-sufficient in petrol, has 80% of it's electricity coming from renewable hydro-plants, has iron ores and exports steel, makes its own cars, is the biggest meat exporter in the world, exports clothes and shoes,...
It mainly is depending on natural gas (although that might change in the future) and machinery and electronics imports.
I know, the military tried that route in the 70/80s and failed, yet I believe that this crisis is so fundamental that increasing protectionism could be a good choice for Brazil in the long run. And I'm not alone, why else would Mandelons by screaming so loud to Brazil to never regard its frontiers as the boundary .
Yestedray George Soros warned that the UK might have to seek IMF rescue . Brazil still has the IMF rescue of the 90s fresh in its memory. This time they have nothing to do with the causes of this economical crisis and this time it's "the others" who are in trouble and having to seek IMF aid. Don't expect too much mercy and understanding of Brazil towards the " white people with the blue eyes ".
This other article from Soros on the UK is also a must-read . -
Mar 25 2009
People asked me how the employment markt is fairing in Brazil. Below the most recent graphs from Globo.
It is crucial to understand two layers of duality here:
1. There is avery big dichotomy between the Northern and Southern States, the job losses of February are almost exclusively recorded in Northern States of Brazil (Amazonia, Rio Grande do Norte, Alagoas, Paraiba, Para). In Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina states respectively 5.480 and 5.647 people were contracted in February.
2. There is a big difference in industries. It is mainly the assembly sector and mining sectors which is slashing people. The services market has hired more than 57.000 people in February and also the construction industry had a net job increase in February.
Tomorrow some stats on the real estate market in Rio de Janeiro.
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